BTC : Bull Continues , But how Strong ? ATH Soon!!

BTC Quant Newsletter

Feb 29, 2024

We have prepared a concise Quant report to assist you in navigating through Bitcoin and Crypto markets.

This report includes some essential data stats like spot and margin CVD charts, NPOC levels, Exchange Flows, Funding rates, and liquidation levels.

It is designed to assist all traders in predicting upcoming market movements based on fundamental data. By combining the analysis of CVD data with liquidity, we can confidently anticipate the next price movement. Our approach in this report is geared towards the medium term, providing the opportunity to forecast price movements for the next 2 to 4 days.

Towards the end of each data set, we have provided observations on the approach to the market. we hope this provides you with valuable insights as you read through.

Lets delve into this:

Tips : if you read daily , you will find an extraordinary edge on reading market state.

BTC CVD Charts

15m
- Spot CVD: Bullish
- Margin CVD: Neutral

1Hr
- Spot CVD: Bullish
- Margin CVD : Bullish

4Hr
- Spot CVD: Bullish
- Margin CVD: Bullish

Daily
- Spot CVD: Bullish
- Margin CVD: Bullish

Observation :
- Current price is driven by Spot traders , while Margin CVD’s are Neutral in LTF suggest whole price is driven by Spot traders which is generally good for price growth. Overall bullish in HTF , BTC is real strong past 2 days.

Note : Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) displays the cumulative volume changes based on the volume traded by sell aggressors versus buy aggressors

Bullish divergence indicates a potential reversal to the upside ,
While Bearish divergence suggests weakening upward momentum.

NPOC Levels (BTC)

NPOC (Naked Point Of Control) aids in identifying key areas with significant remaining liquidity, enabling us to see where whales left most unrealised orders. NPOC levels consistently act as price magnets, with the price closing them in over 85% of cases. These levels often signal reversals, but can also indicate continuation. Primarily, they serve as valuable tools for placing limit buy and sell orders, as well as predicting the likely direction of the price in the subsequent move.

Daily
- Above : No New nPOC open Upside
- Below : 62000 , 57000. 52000 & Lower

4hr*
- Above : - -
- Below : 54500 , 53500

ETH Daily nPOC chart
- Above :- -
- Below : 3180 , and lower

Observation :
- BTC : No new nPOC’s above , but if looking through exchanges Heatmap chart ,liquidity region creating at 68K zone.
- ETH : ETH is in its strong uptrend taking out all POC’s and pushing rentlessly.

Funding rate:

OI Weighted Funding: 0.048%

Funding tapping higher bond, Above that earlier january .Generally higher funding suggests retracement , But must to keep in mind that , higher funding kept continues to larger duration in strong trend.

In case of funding, generally when trend is strong and traders able to earn larger profits by paying higher funding fees for being long. Until price stops responding to same magnitude as traders paying higher fees to it.

Note : Funding represents periodic payments between Long and Short position participants in a perpetual futures contract. A deviation from neutrality suggests an imbalance in market positioning by one side of traders which must needs to rebalance.

Positive funding means positions are dominated by Long side participants , Negative funding means positions are dominated by Short side participants.
Traders closely monitor funding rates for strategic decision-making.

Exchange balance: Inflows and Outflows from exchanges

5200 Daily Outflow
23k Weekly Outflow

Surprise to notice the whale activities with BTC , BTC kept continues to outflows with the price upside push.Generally when BTC pump , it observe huge inflows of BTC into the exchanges that indicate possible selling pressure , which is not showing here.

Note: Positive net flows indicate more Bitcoin coming into the exchange than leaving, while negative net flows suggest more Bitcoin leaving the exchange than entering.

Subscribed

Aggregated Exchanges Liquidation Levels

24hr Liquidity Map Distribution : (LTF past 24hr liquidity ranges between)

Upside : 62000 - 65000
Downside: 61500 - 60000 - 56900

Overall large liquidity on the exchanges are distributed downside of the current price , that suggests either large liquidation level or level buy orders resting there.

Note : This shows nearest liquidity residing around exchanges.

X-axis represents the mark price, while the Y-axis represents the relative intensity of liquidation.
Higher "liquidation bars" indicate a stronger reaction due to a surge in liquidity.

Liquidation Levels (Tier 0)

Total Liquidations: Short 99, Long 995
Active Long posi. size : $ k 1.38m

(Tier 1)
- Total Liquidations: Short 77,Long 264
- Active Short posi. size : $ k 604

Bull kept pushing price higher with creating larger liquidation to downside as they setting up stop losses below their entry price .
Skew imbalance between Short and Long positions are in large imbalance with the ratio of 9:1 with open liquidation per position is $1.38m

Liquidation Heatmap
12 Hr

Upside : 64k
Downside : 59k

Weekly:
- Upside : 64k-68k
- Downside : 59k-52k

Yesterday flush taken out nearer liquidity between 64k - 59k almost 7-8% fluctuation . While newer liquidity is now open into HTF levels at 68k .

Note : Liquidation level & Heatmap predicts the price levels at which large-scale liquidation events may occur. A liquidation event occurs when a trader's positions are closed due to price fluctuations and their margin account balance is insufficient to cover the open positions

Traders who can estimate the liquidation levels of other traders may gain an advantage similar to understanding high liquidity in the order book.

Conclusive Insight:

First of all just to make it easy for you, we will request you must not miss reading any of our report, data are closely interlinked with each other, continuity helps you to understand the overall shift in the price microstructure state .

BTC Daily Time frame

BTC is in absolute bull mode, since range broke out it kept pushing higher by each day , breaking up through all key levels above ,daily looks strong . Soon to tag ATH if this strength continues .
Yesterday’s LTF flush will often happen to take out over higher leverage traders out from the game. However things must to keep in mind that one sided expansion increases the imbalance between the Either side positions skew.
Data that suggests bullish Bias are: Strong spot CVD uptrend , Continues outflows of BTC out from the exchanges.
While Data that suggests over expansion n retracement are Funding , Skew Imbalance between Short and Long Positions.
Not to suggest any new long position here , but to wait for any possible retracement , that could possibly give good re-entry . Be safe , Always trade with well risk managed position size Happy trading .
We recommend to look through out previous BTC report also : 24th Feb BTC Quant Report Newsletter

Thank you for reading our report. Hope this report been helping you in gauging the market force . As we look ahead, we're excited to continue sharing reports and insights.

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