BTC : Deep Pullback !! New Healthy Growth Forward ??
BTC Quant Newsletter
We have prepared a concise Quant report to assist you in navigating through Bitcoin and Crypto markets.
This report includes some essential data stats like spot and margin CVD charts, NPOC levels, Exchange Flows, Funding rates, and liquidation levels.
It is designed to assist all traders in predicting upcoming market movements based on fundamental data. By combining the analysis of CVD data with liquidity, we can confidently anticipate the next price movement. Our approach in this report is geared towards the medium term, providing the opportunity to forecast price movements for the next 2 to 4 days.
Towards the end of each data set, we have provided observations on the approach to the market. we hope this provides you with valuable insights as you read through.
Lets delve into this:
Tips : if you read daily , you will find an extraordinary edge on reading market state.
BTC CVD Charts
15m
Spot CVD: Bullish
Margin CVD: Neutral
Spot traders are buying BTC confidently , while Margin traders are flat with their position not showing any aggressive to any side .
1Hr
Spot CVD: Bullish
Margin CVD : Neutral
Since price made dump , Spot BTC price developing strongly and efficiently because of Spot traders buying.
4Hr
Spot CVD: Bullish
Margin CVD: Neutral
Daily
Spot CVD: Bullish
Margin CVD: Neutral
Observation :
Previous report recap : We noticed Margin lev traders were aggressive in the anticipation of selling , which indeed leads to selloff by 15%.
Now , Further price development suggests growth in BTC price is totally leading by Spot traders , which is generally healthy sign for the price growth.
Note : Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) displays the cumulative volume changes based on the volume traded by sell aggressors versus buy aggressors
Bullish divergence indicates a potential reversal to the upside ,
While Bearish divergence suggests weakening upward momentum.
NPOC Levels (BTC)
NPOC (Naked Point Of Control) aids in identifying key areas with significant remaining liquidity, enabling us to see where whales left most unrealised orders. NPOC levels consistently act as price magnets, with the price closing them in over 85% of cases. These levels often signal reversals, but can also indicate continuation. Primarily, they serve as valuable tools for placing limit buy and sell orders, as well as predicting the likely direction of the price in the subsequent move.
Daily
Above : No New nPOC open Upside
Below : 64000 , 62000 , 57000 Lower
4hr*
Above : - -
Below : 61000 Tagged , 57000
ETH Daily nPOC chart
Above :
Below : 3500 Tagged , 3520 (New Open)
Observation :
BTC : Flush and Cascade dump took some large liquidity residing below till 59k .
ETH : Below 3500 took out and strong buyback, however leaving again new Npoc at 3520.
Funding rate:
OI Weighted Funding: 0.0515%
5th March dump took out large liquidity below and also able to cool off Funding from 0.09% to 0.03% - 0.05% . Suggests over leveraged positions paying higher fees to being long are now flushed out and new positions will soon build up. Generally in trending market , Sudden pump and reset of funding is healthy for market .
Note : Funding represents periodic payments between Long and Short position participants in a perpetual futures contract. A deviation from neutrality suggests an imbalance in market positioning by one side of traders which must needs to rebalance.
Positive funding means positions are dominated by Long side participants , Negative funding means positions are dominated by Short side participants.
Traders closely monitor funding rates for strategic decision-making.
Exchange balance: Inflows and Outflows from exchanges
1200 Daily Outflow
4000 Weekly Outflow
Since 26th of January we noticed continous outflow of BTC from exchanges , which still dominated . However on tuesday’s dump , some inflows of BTC observed into the exchanges.
Note: Positive net flows indicate more Bitcoin coming into the exchange than leaving, while negative net flows suggest more Bitcoin leaving the exchange than entering.
if our report helps you out to gauge the market state , Give a follow and appreciate our work!!
Aggregated Exchanges Liquidation Levels
24hr Liquidity Map Distribution : (LTF past 24hr liquidity ranges between)
Upside : 67800 - 70000
Downside: 66600 - 64000
One sided liquidity overall flushed out , while new range and new liquidity created around the chart .
Note : This shows nearest liquidity residing around exchanges.
X-axis represents the mark price, while the Y-axis represents the relative intensity of liquidation.
Higher "liquidation bars" indicate a stronger reaction due to a surge in liquidity.
Liquidation Levels (Tier 0)
Total Liquidations: Short 159, Long 180
Active Long posi. size : $ k 27
(Tier 1)
Total Liquidations: Short 132,Long 177
Active Short posi. size : $ k 57
Again, Before dump , Skew was largely imbalance , which now resetted and now traders position Skew is balanced between the either side of the traders while Long position dominated with leaving $57k liquidation foe each position , which is generally very small compare when market is overheated.
Liquidation Heatmap
Weekly:
Upside : 75k
Downside : 60k
12 Hr
Upside : 69k
Downside : 66k - 65k
Note : Liquidation level & Heatmap predicts the price levels at which large-scale liquidation events may occur. A liquidation event occurs when a trader's positions are closed due to price fluctuations and their margin account balance is insufficient to cover the open positions
Traders who can estimate the liquidation levels of other traders may gain an advantage similar to understanding high liquidity in the order book.
Conclusive Insight:
First of all just to make it easy for you, we will request you must not miss reading any of our report, data are closely interlinked with each other, continuity helps you to understand the overall shift in the price microstructure state .
BTC 15 Minute Time frame
BTC Daily TF
Our reports provide a strong metric to gauge the state of market , if you went back to our report , you will find a valid and authentic way to find an appealing anticipation of the future price and bias .
Previous report suggest we about to see some serious manipulation before price breach ATH , which indeed occurred . However if Zoomout , this dump successfully retested HTF Monthly key level , which we anticipated to tagged during any possible pullback. (During pullback if price retest any previous key level and recover quickly , generally indicate strong and healthy retest.)
Now wat? All the previous concern about market overheat and possibly anticipation of pullback happen , which resetted the market overheat metrics like funding , skew and Liquidity . Currently Spot buyers are strongly and confidently buying while Margin Traders are neutral with their positions . If price kept building like this , we will soon breakout to ATH and enter into price discovery.
Thats all for today lads , Hope you all followed us , Made , managed and saved hard earn profits . Follow us for receiving our valuable report on each alternate days, Advantage ? You keep able to gauge and sync with the state of the market .
If you are new to this , Must Request to read our previous report too : 5th Mar BTC Quant Report Newsletter
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Until next time, Happy trading, and stay tuned for more updates.