BTC Sideways but still strong
BTC Quant Newsletter .
We prepare a daily quant report for our trading desk, which helps us trade Bitcoin.
The report includes a range of essential statistical data such as spot and margin CVD, NPOC levels, exchange flows, funding rates, and liquidation levels.
It is designed to assist all traders in predicting upcoming market movements based on fundamental data. By combining the analysis of CVD data with liquidity, we can confidently anticipate the next price movement. Our approach in this report is geared towards the medium term, providing the opportunity to forecast price movements for the next 2 to 4 days.
We are pleased to share this report with you, along with our interpretation of the data.
Lets delve into this:
Tips : if you read daily , you will find an extraordinary edge on reading market state.
BTC CVD CHART
15m to Daily Time Frame
15m
Price: Sideways
Spot CVD : Selling
Margin CVD : Selling
Since past few days , price is in sideways , where CVD’s are selling slightly throughout the sideways.
1Hr
Price : Prints HL str.
Spot CVD: Holding support
Margin CVD : Selling
1hr is quite deflective compare to 15m CVD chart , here spot resists from selling , absorbing margin selling walls , however in the mean , price prints HL str. In the given scenerio , if margin buyers jumps price could see upside pushes.
4Hr
Price : HL str.
Spot CVD: Selling
Margin CVD: Selling
4hr chart is more comparable to 15m cvd chart , where both cvd observe to be selling while price still prints continous HL str.
Daily
Price : Since price stretched upside alot , it showing a bullish sideways
Spot CVD: Selling
Margin CVD: Selling
Observation :
Even though CVD’s are selling aggressively , price going sideways that suggest margin active selling is being absorbed by the passive buy orders which prevent price to fall.
Note : Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) displays the cumulative volume changes based on the volume traded by sell aggressors versus buy aggressors. CVD used to gauge real-time market pressure and sentiment, which is crucial for short-term trading and identifying potential reversals. It provides potential scenario’s which can be used to identify key market anticipated moves.
NPOC Levels (BTC)
NPOC (Naked Point Of Control) aids in identifying key areas with significant remaining liquidity, enabling us to see where whales left most unrealised orders. NPOC levels consistently act as price magnets, with the price closing them in over 85% of cases. These levels often signal reversals, but can also indicate continuation. Primarily, they serve as valuable tools for placing limit buy and sell orders, as well as predicting the likely direction of the price in the subsequent move.
Daily
Above :
Below : 88k , 81800 .
4 Hr
Above : 92k
Below : Below.
With recent pump all major HTF NPOC’s have been taken out , while now it opening new NPOC down in the line. with higher degree of NPOC is at 82k.
Funding rate:
0.0315% , Funding hover in its higher bracket region , where traders paying higher and larger fees to kept opening their long positions.
Funding Heatmap , the darker the more overheating of the market , here other than BTC , it can be observed that other memecoins shows higher funding that include BONK , GOAT , POPCAT,MOODENG ,PNUT .
while other major coins dosnt shows much higher funding yet.
Note : Low funding rates are a positive indicator, suggesting that the market isn’t overheated. However, it's crucial to wait for additional confirmation signals, such as the closing of NPOCs or increased spot buying, before considering this as a buying opportunity. On the upside, the lack of overleveraging in the market suggests that we are unlikely to see significant liquidation cascades.
Exchange balance: Inflows and Outflows from exchanges :
Slight inflows observe here. however long term suggest continous outflows of the coins out of the exchange .
Note: Positive net flows indicate more Bitcoin coming into the exchange than leaving, while negative net flows suggest more Bitcoin leaving the exchange than entering.
Aggregated Exchanges Liquidation Levels
Liquidity Map Distribution : (LTF past 24hr liquidity ranges between)
Daily : some upside toward 92400 which concide with the level above current top , suggest tons of position are open with short position , toward that level. so even if price is target to drop , it must take out these high tier liquidity before starts dumping.
Weekly :
Monthly :
Weekly and monthly both liquidation map are too align with this liquidity .
Coin-Glass Heatmap
Daily : some bright liquidity showing above between 92-93k level
3 Day : liquidity also align with Daily Heatmap chart.
Weekly
Note : Liquidation level & Heatmap aggregates the price levels at which large-scale liquidation events may occur. A liquidation event occurs when a trader's positions are closed due to price fluctuations .
Liquidation Levels (Tier 0)
Total Liquidations: Long 121 , Short 121
Active Long posi. size : $ 46k
(Tier 1) , Lower granularity level ,
Total Liquidations: Long 5, Short 23
Active Short posi. size : $ k 92
Observation :
Skew is now looks rebalanced to large extent with ongoing sideways in the price. Both liquidation and positioning skew dropped and resetted.
this is the point where i most of the time expect price to again make expansion move toward either side.
Conclusive Insight:
Today
Bitcoin is still bullish and strong , market is well standing and absorbing all the active selling orders . past 3-4 days margin selling continously been successfully observed by the passive buyers limit orders.
Funding is a bit higher compare to general days.
However looking through liquidity perspective , some high leverage liquidity residing above toward 92k-93k , which is also confluenced with Heatmap liquidity clusters too. Aligning this with skew , it could be more possible that market would soon give expansive move toward either side and take out some large volumes also that could lead to the major positioning liquidations.
But overall flows of BTC is comprised of Outflows , there’s no major spot selling observed yet.
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