BTC : ATH about to Tag !! Will it keep pushing higher ??
BTC Quant Newsletter
We have prepared a concise Quant report to assist you in navigating through Bitcoin and Crypto markets.
This report includes some essential data stats like spot and margin CVD charts, NPOC levels, Exchange Flows, Funding rates, and liquidation levels.
It is designed to assist all traders in predicting upcoming market movements based on fundamental data. By combining the analysis of CVD data with liquidity, we can confidently anticipate the next price movement. Our approach in this report is geared towards the medium term, providing the opportunity to forecast price movements for the next 2 to 4 days.
Towards the end of each data set, we have provided observations on the approach to the market. we hope this provides you with valuable insights as you read through.
Lets delve into this:
Tips : if you read daily , you will find an extraordinary edge on reading market state.
BTC CVD Charts
15m
Spot CVD: Bearish
Margin CVD: Bearish
Margin CVD or sellers selling aggressively compare to Spot traders , Suggesting Margin trying to push into new short positions .
1Hr
Spot CVD: Slight Bearish
Margin CVD : Bearish
Spot are relatively strengthen compare to Margin .
4Hr
Spot CVD: Bearish
Margin CVD: Bearish
Daily
Spot CVD: Bullish Neutral
Margin CVD: Neutral Bearish
Observation :
Amid BTC price approaching ATH , price manipulating and making some aggressive moves , Spot holding nicely , while Margin anticipating to push price lower , could be possibly aggressive stops take out before breaching ATH .
Note : Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) displays the cumulative volume changes based on the volume traded by sell aggressors versus buy aggressors
Bullish divergence indicates a potential reversal to the upside ,
While Bearish divergence suggests weakening upward momentum.
NPOC Levels (BTC)
NPOC (Naked Point Of Control) aids in identifying key areas with significant remaining liquidity, enabling us to see where whales left most unrealised orders. NPOC levels consistently act as price magnets, with the price closing them in over 85% of cases. These levels often signal reversals, but can also indicate continuation. Primarily, they serve as valuable tools for placing limit buy and sell orders, as well as predicting the likely direction of the price in the subsequent move.
Daily
Above : No New nPOC open Upside
Below : 64000 , 62000 , 57000 Lower
4hr*
Above : - -
Below : 65000 Tag , 64000 (Lower)
ETH Daily nPOC chart
Above : - -
Below : 3500 and lower
Observation :
BTC : No new nPOC’s above , while some large liquidity residing downside around 57k , 64k level , which will prefer to tag in case any deep pullback happen.
ETH : Strong and kept lefting nPOC downside , which all be key level to watch in the time of pullback.
Funding rate:
OI Weighted Funding: 0.098%
Funding keep tapping higher bound . Generally higher funding suggests retracement, however higher funding could be for larger duration in strong trend.
In case of funding, generally when trend is strong and if traders able to earn larger profits by paying higher funding fees for being long, trend could keep continue to go, until market stops responding to same magnitude as traders paying higher fees to it. Failing to it leads to pullback and reset in the funding .
Note : Funding represents periodic payments between Long and Short position participants in a perpetual futures contract. A deviation from neutrality suggests an imbalance in market positioning by one side of traders which must needs to rebalance.
Positive funding means positions are dominated by Long side participants , Negative funding means positions are dominated by Short side participants.
Traders closely monitor funding rates for strategic decision-making.
Exchange balance: Inflows and Outflows from exchanges
3000 Daily Inflow
9200 Weekly Outflow
Surprise to notice the whale activities with BTC, BTC kept continues to outflows with the price upside push. Generally when BTC pump , it observe huge inflows of BTC into the exchanges that indicate possible selling pressure , which is not showing here.
Note: Positive net flows indicate more Bitcoin coming into the exchange than leaving, while negative net flows suggest more Bitcoin leaving the exchange than entering.
Aggregated Exchanges Liquidation Levels
24hr Liquidity Map Distribution : (LTF past 24hr liquidity ranges between)
Upside : 67000 - 70000
Downside: 65800 - 63300
Overall large liquidity on the exchanges are distributed both side of the current price , that suggests large liquidation level or level buy orders resting there.
Note : This shows nearest liquidity residing around exchanges.
X-axis represents the mark price, while the Y-axis represents the relative intensity of liquidation.
Higher "liquidation bars" indicate a stronger reaction due to a surge in liquidity.
Liquidation Levels (Tier 0)
Total Liquidations: Short 89, Long 207
Active Long posi. size : $ k 309
(Tier 1)
Total Liquidations: Short 88,Long 202
Active Short posi. size : $ k 202
As higher long liquidation open to the downside , price trying to take it out , possibly taking out some high lev posi before breaching out the ATH .
Skew imbalance between Short and Long positions are decreased to some extent comparing to previous report status on 2nd March,current imbalance with the ratio of 1:2 with open liquidation per position is $309k , that mean each long position is open with liquidation size of $309.
Liquidation Heatmap
Weekly:
Upside : 75k
Downside : 60k , 55k
12 Hr
Upside : 69k
Downside : 66k - 65k
Note : Liquidation level & Heatmap predicts the price levels at which large-scale liquidation events may occur. A liquidation event occurs when a trader's positions are closed due to price fluctuations and their margin account balance is insufficient to cover the open positions
Traders who can estimate the liquidation levels of other traders may gain an advantage similar to understanding high liquidity in the order book.
Conclusive Insight:
First of all just to make it easy for you, we will request you must not miss reading any of our report, data are closely interlinked with each other, continuity helps you to understand the overall shift in the price microstructure state .
BTC Daily Time frame
It’s no doubt bull market kept rallying strongly , BTC about to breach historical ATH anytime soon , appreciate to lads who kept followed our report and got clear one side bias of trend from 26k , 44k and onward.
Well , lets discuss current status , personally would not force or to predict opposite side direction for price, it just kept pushing higher even with all relative data that suggests market overheated , Price making some ltf manipulation to take out higher lev liquidity and re-initiate the next move , Its about to breach ATH 69k , possibly current manipulation occur before taking out ATH .
Talking about data , CVD just shows some bearish in LTF which not matter in HTF , but somehow Margin anticipating for the price to lowerside . Funding is high ,relatively higher than usual but Exchange dlows are still dominated with whale accumulation .
Liquidation parity is somehow minimized from open liquidation of $1m to $300k , suugesting still with current expansion , pairing between the long and short side traders are still okay . While Heatmap in weekly timeframe started showing liquidity around 75k area , which could possibly tap , if price pushes higher.
We recommend to look through out previous BTC report also : 2nd Mar BTC Quant Report Newsletter
Thank you for reading our report. Hope this report been helping you in gauging the market force . As we look ahead, we're excited to continue sharing reports and insights.
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Until next time, Happy trading, and stay tuned for more updates.