BTC : Pullback ?? Or Will it just keep going upside ?
BTC Quant Newsletter
We have prepared a concise Quant report to assist you in navigating through Bitcoin and Crypto markets.
This report includes some essential data stats like spot and margin CVD charts, NPOC levels, Exchange Flows, Funding rates, and liquidation levels.
It is designed to assist all traders in predicting upcoming market movements based on fundamental data. By combining the analysis of CVD data with liquidity, we can confidently anticipate the next price movement. Our approach in this report is geared towards the medium term, providing the opportunity to forecast price movements for the next 2 to 4 days.
Towards the end of each data set, we have provided observations on the approach to the market. we hope this provides you with valuable insights as you read through.
Lets delve into this:
Tips : if you read daily , you will find an extraordinary edge on reading market state.
BTC CVD Charts
15m
Spot CVD: Neutral
Margin CVD: Neutral
1Hr
Spot CVD: Neutral
Margin CVD : Bullish - Neutral
Since BTC price made highs around 64k and Dumped , Both side participants are indicisive with clear direction and just being flat with their trades ,
4Hr
Spot CVD: Neutral
Margin CVD: Neutral
Daily
Spot CVD: Bullish Neutral
Margin CVD: Neutral
Spot traders lead the market since 52k range breakout , which also lead the Margin lev traders to close their anticipated Short position and shift to long side . While Current scenerio, Spot still holding its level and no sign of selling from Spot participants.
Observation :
Since BTC tag 64k , price is just ranging , while Both Spot and Margin traders are in-decisive regarding bias with the price (Short term) and possibly waiting for the either side of breakout.
Note : Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) displays the cumulative volume changes based on the volume traded by sell aggressors versus buy aggressors
Bullish divergence indicates a potential reversal to the upside ,
While Bearish divergence suggests weakening upward momentum.
NPOC Levels (BTC)
NPOC (Naked Point Of Control) aids in identifying key areas with significant remaining liquidity, enabling us to see where whales left most unrealised orders. NPOC levels consistently act as price magnets, with the price closing them in over 85% of cases. These levels often signal reversals, but can also indicate continuation. Primarily, they serve as valuable tools for placing limit buy and sell orders, as well as predicting the likely direction of the price in the subsequent move.
Daily
Above : No New nPOC open Upside
Below : 61000 , 57000. 52000 & Lower
4hr*
Above : - -
Below : 57000 ,51800
ETH Daily nPOC chart
Above : 3480
Below : 3240 and lower
Observation :
BTC : No new nPOC’s above , while some large liquidity residing downside around 57k level , which will prefer to tag in case any deep pullback happen.
ETH : Strong and kept lefting nPOC downside , which all be key level to watch in the time of pullback.
Funding rate:
OI Weighted Funding: 0.048%
Funding tapping higher bound, Above that of earlier january level . Generally higher funding suggests retracement, however higher funding could be for larger duration in strong trend.
In case of funding, generally when trend is strong and if traders able to earn larger profits by paying higher funding fees for being long, trend could keep continue to go, until market stops responding to same magnitude as traders paying higher fees to it. Failing to it leads to pullback and reset in the funding .
Note : Funding represents periodic payments between Long and Short position participants in a perpetual futures contract. A deviation from neutrality suggests an imbalance in market positioning by one side of traders which must needs to rebalance.
Positive funding means positions are dominated by Long side participants , Negative funding means positions are dominated by Short side participants.
Traders closely monitor funding rates for strategic decision-making.
Exchange balance: Inflows and Outflows from exchanges
17500 Daily Outflow
21k Weekly Outflow
Surprise to notice the whale activities with BTC, BTC kept continues to outflows with the price upside push. Generally when BTC pump , it observe huge inflows of BTC into the exchanges that indicate possible selling pressure , which is not showing here.
Note: Positive net flows indicate more Bitcoin coming into the exchange than leaving, while negative net flows suggest more Bitcoin leaving the exchange than entering.
Aggregated Exchanges Liquidation Levels
24hr Liquidity Map Distribution : (LTF past 24hr liquidity ranges between)
Upside : 62300 - 63800
Downside: 61500 - 60000 - 56900
Overall large liquidity on the exchanges are distributed both side of the current price , that suggests large liquidation level or level buy orders resting there.
Note : This shows nearest liquidity residing around exchanges.
X-axis represents the mark price, while the Y-axis represents the relative intensity of liquidation.
Higher "liquidation bars" indicate a stronger reaction due to a surge in liquidity.
Liquidation Levels (Tier 0)
Total Liquidations: Short 34, Long 719
Active Long posi. size : $ k 1.04m
(Tier 1)
Total Liquidations: Short 60,Long 149
Active Short posi. size : $ k 362
Bullish market sentiment kept pushing price higher with creating larger liquidation to downside as long participants setting stop losses below their entry price .
Skew imbalance between Short and Long positions are in large imbalance with the ratio of 1:7 with open liquidation per position is $1.04m , that mean each long position is open with liquidation size of $1.04m.
Liquidation Heatmap
Monthly
Upside : Slight thin liquidity till 75k
Downside : 50k - 45k - 42k (Bright cluster liquidity)
Weekly:
Upside : 64k-69k
Downside : 59k-50k
12 Hr
Upside : 63k , 64k
Downside : 61k , 60k
Note : Liquidation level & Heatmap predicts the price levels at which large-scale liquidation events may occur. A liquidation event occurs when a trader's positions are closed due to price fluctuations and their margin account balance is insufficient to cover the open positions
Traders who can estimate the liquidation levels of other traders may gain an advantage similar to understanding high liquidity in the order book.
Conclusive Insight:
First of all just to make it easy for you, we will request you must not miss reading any of our report, data are closely interlinked with each other, continuity helps you to understand the overall shift in the price microstructure state .
BTC Daily Time frame
Nothing much changed since our previous report , Bull continued to be strong backedup by Spot CVD and continous huge outflows , while liquidity keep building upside as price grows.
Talking about bearishness possiblity , Funding is quite overheated across the exchanges with position parity between Short and Long trades are in large imbalance leading to huge liquidation downward the current price . If these data leads to pullback then we must need to keep eye on Daily n 4hr nPOC’s.
Not to suggest any new long position here , but to wait for any possible retracement , that could possibly give good re-entry . Be safe , Always trade with well risk managed position size Happy trading .
We recommend to look through out previous BTC report also : 29th Feb BTC Quant Report Newsletter
Thank you for reading our report. Hope this report been helping you in gauging the market force . As we look ahead, we're excited to continue sharing reports and insights.
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Until next time, Happy trading, and stay tuned for more updates.